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Howard Leaman                                                     Jan 23/19


Canola has been mainly on the defensive in overnight action. Palm oil is
also on the defensive, but European rapeseed and the soy complex is mainly
firmer. The Canadian dollar is up about a fifth of a cent against the U.S.

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Hot and dry weather in parts of      1) The South American soy crop may
Brazil and excess moisture in parts of  not be as large as had been
Argentina continue to raise concerns    expected, but it is still large,
that the South American soy crop will   and the crop is coming onto the    
be significantly smaller than was       market earlier than normal.
previously expected.                    2) Canadian/Chinese tension is 
2) The technical bias in canola         raising concerns that Chinese     
continues to shift to the upside. Any   buying of Canadian canola could be
weakness is apt to be widely seen as a  curtailed. 
buying opportunity.                     3) The Canadian dollar is showing 
3) Commercial buying of canola is       some bounce against the U.S. dollar
expected to increase as canola crush    this morning.
margins improve.

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