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Howard Leaman                                                     Apr 25/18


Canola has traded on both sides of unchanged in overnight action with the
bias clearly shifting to the downside. Palm oil, European rapeseed, 
soybeans, and soy meal are all firmer this morning, but soy oil is mainly
unchanged. The Canadian dollar is down about a tenth of a cent against the
U.S. dollar. 

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) The Canadian dollar is down about    1) Recent strength in canola    
a tenth of a cent against the U.S.      relative to soy has left it looking
dollar this morning.                    expensive.
2) Though the May canola contract is    2) Despite concerns about the
significantly lower this morning, the   possibility of delayed spring 
scramble to cover previous sales ahead  planting, many traders are still
of first notice day could again lend    looking for record large Canadian 
spillover support to other contract     canola acreage and large U.S. soy 
months.                                 acreage this year. Forecasts for 
3) Traders are apt to put more weather  western Canada are more favourable
premium into the market heading into    for field work.
the growing season.                     3) The technical bias in canola
                                        could turn bearish quickly.

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