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Howard Leaman                                                     Sep 24/18

MIXED TO LOWER

Canola has been mixed in overnight action with the November contract on the
defensive, but the July position is holding steady. Palm oil is firmer this
morning, soy oil is steady, while European rapeseed, soybeans and soy meal
are weaker. The Canadian dollar is down about a tenth of a cent against the
U.S. dollar.    

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Less than favourable weather in      1) U.S. soy conditions are 
parts of western Canada is delaying     generally favourable, and record   
the harvest and threatening the         large production is expected.
quality of the canola crop.             2) Canola remains very expensive 
2) Canola ended last week on a strong   relative to soy.            
note, supporting the view that the      3) Chinese/U.S. trade tension       
market has found technical support on   continues to overhang the soy 
the price charts.                       market, causing spillover selling  
3) Though the soy complex has           to canola.
struggled in last night's session, the  4) So far talk of increased Chinese
market does look like it can show some  buying of Canadian canola to 
bounce that could lend spillover        replace U.S. soy has been nothing
support to canola.                      but talk.

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