Warmer weather moved into the Canadian Prairies early this week, but the warmth will not be lasting. A major storm system is on its way into the region. It will bring scattered showers with rain changing to heavy snow as cold air settles in. With the cold forecast to stick around into early May, extended problems for area farmers and ranchers can be expected.

It continues to be a very cold spring in the Canadian Prairies. As mentioned last week (https://www.dtnpf.com/…), there have been periods of warmth, like we have seen this week, but the cold has been dominating the region for the last couple of months. This, combined with periods of accumulating snow, has kept fieldwork preparation to a minimum so far. Morning 4-inch soil temperatures as of April 22 are all below 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) across the region, with a few exceptions just over the mark in southern Alberta. Where it has been snowier and colder in the northeast, soil temperatures are less than 5 degrees C (41 degrees F). Snow still exists in some of the northern areas, too.

A big storm system will be moving into the region on April 22, and especially April 23. The strengthening low-pressure system will produce widespread showers that will start as rain, but cold air coming from the northwest will turn that over to snow on Thursday.

Saskatchewan is likely to see a period of heavy snow during Thursday and Friday. Some of that heavy snow should make its way westward into Alberta as well.

Unlike most weather systems that move in and then out of the region during the course of a day or so, this low-pressure system will be different. After strengthening on Thursday into Friday, it will continue to spin around the region through the weekend before finally pushing northeast.

The extended stay will continue to add to snow totals, though the snowfall rates will be lower during the weekend. In total, Manitoba is likely to see very little snowfall, though some areas around the western and northern ends of the province could see light accumulations.

Alberta may have some wide-ranging snowfall totals with the south seeing less than 5 cm (2 inches) and northern areas outside of the Peace region seeing anywhere from 10 to 30 cm (4 to 12 inches). But Saskatchewan is likely to see the highest totals from the storm. The latest DTN forecast has lower totals in the southeast, but much of the province is expected to see at least 10 cm (4 inches) and areas across the north may see totals creeping up toward 45 cm (18 inches).

Temperatures will be extremely low for several days as the system moves in and should be coldest from Friday through Sunday. Low temperatures will be below freezing, but those areas with the heavier snow should see temperatures down below minus 5 degrees C (23 degrees F), and some areas could see temperatures down toward minus 15 degrees C (5 degrees F). These temperatures are generally 10-15 degrees C (18-27 degrees F) below normal. Though moderation in temperature is expected next week as the main system pulls away, temperatures are still forecast to remain below normal through next week and into early May.

Snow will be slower to melt and soils will be slower to warm up as well. Temperatures this low will likely drive soil temperatures downward, shifting the momentum as we move into May. Producers will have to wait longer to get out into their fields and anyone that has already planted with the better temperatures this week will likely have some issues to deal with once the snow melts.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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