July canola is down $3.50/mt with November canola down $3.80/mt, July soybean oil is down .18 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is down 4.25 euro/mt and August Malaysian palm oil is up .24%. December oats are down 3/4 cents/bushel. August crude oil is down $2.92/barrel, August ULSD is up $.0999/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00060 at .70745. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down .198 at 100.995 and the July Brazilian real is up .00085 at 0.19365.
King corn is reminding traders who might take the lead if the heat coming to the U.S. Midwest sticks around, on top of almost certain damage that's being done currently to the European corn crop by a record-setting heat wave that's compounding drought damage (during silking). With a rising tide lifting all boats (as the saying goes), a strong rally in corn would be hard to ignore by the remaining ag markets. And the potential drivers of a corn rally are easily identifiable. As was pointed out in Tuesday's Opening Comments, "managed money traders and commodity index traders combined sold a net of just over 2.4 billion bushels of corn from May 4 to the June 16 cutoff, resulting in the break from contract highs to contract lows in such a short period of time. It also highlights the potential for profits to be taken in short positions before the month and quarter end." Should those two groups simply return to their May 4 positions, net buying of 2.4 billion bushels of corn could result in just as violent of a move to the upside as was seen to the downside, potentially more so depending on how aggressive they are. December corn is only 3 cents higher on the day currently but is already 15 cents/bushel off Thursday's low.
Oilseed markets are trying to firm up even though the energy complex is trying to put in fresh lows for the day, still trying to fill the gap in crude oil from the start of March. As a side note, crude oil has traded deeper into the gap but has yet to fill it. Soybeans have also turned positive with soybean oil trying to do so as well. Canola is still under pressure but not enough to do any technical damage.
Outside markets are firming up as energy prices slide with most stocks recovering from overnight lows and bonds trading quietly higher. The U.S. dollar hasn't changed much throughout the morning and remains quietly lower.
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