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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
Mitch Miller 7/13 11:03 AM

November canola is up $9.60/mt, December soybean oil is up 2.23 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 12.25 euro/mt (setting new contract highs) and September Malaysian palm oil is up .22%. December oats are down 3 1/4 cents/bushel while November European corn is down .75 euros/mt. August crude oil is up $3.40/barrel, August ULSD is up $.2164/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00045 at .70905. The September U.S. Dollar Index is up .190 at 100.945 and the August Brazilian real is down .00065 at 0.19420.

Energy markets are taking center stage again with morning gains being added to when President Trump announced that the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil shipments will be reinstated in response to the escalation of attacks and differing opinions over who controls the Strait of Hormuz. He went on to say that the U.S. will now be "known as the Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and will charge a 20% fee on every ship. That sets up for a battle over control that can (likely) no longer be settled diplomatically. Given the recent pullback in price expecting a return to somewhat normal oil flow through the Strait, the developments resulted in strong gains that were led by diesel (thanks to the added support from the Russian ban on diesel exports for the rest of July).

The developments have inspired a significant rally in soybean oil and a recovery in canola, a stronger U.S. dollar and additional losses for stocks and bonds.

On top of that, bullish weather conditions and forecasts for more of the same in Europe and the U.S. continue to provide solid support with the typical morning pullback being bought up rather quickly. That has left the breakaway gap in corn in place, suggesting that further gains should lie ahead.

 
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