July canola is down $5.90/mt with November canola down $5.60/mt, July soybean oil is down 1.40 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is up 2.25 euro per mt and August Malaysian palm oil is closed. July oats are up 1 1/4 cents/bushel. July crude oil is up $.53 per barrel, July ULSD is up $.0246 per gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is down .00205 at .71535. The September U.S. Dollar Index is up .171 at 99.450 and the July Brazilian real is up .00125 at 0.19700.

It appears month and quarter end positioning may be impacting strategies already given all the countertrend moves taking place. Wheat and corn are leading ag markets higher while soybean oil and canola are under pressure again despite strength in energy markets.

A flash sale of 372,000 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations that was reported Wednesday morning could well have been part of the Chinese business that had been rumored to have been responsible for this week's gains in that market. 312,000 mt is for the 2026-27 marketing year so it is consistent with earlier reports.

Energy markets are higher but well off the best levels of the session when comments from President Trump caused a short-term spike, sending crude oil up almost $4/barrel briefly. He suggested that "It's a memorandum of understanding and if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs".

Likely as concerning in the big picture was the EIA weekly inventory report. Crude oil stocks (excluding the SPR) fell by another 8.3 million barrels, far exceeding the 3.5-million-barrel drawdown that was expected. The SPR inventory also fell by another 8.9 million barrels thanks to ongoing emergency releases. With that taking combined inventories down to early 1985 levels, it may shed some light on why the Trump administration was willing to make such significant concessions to Iran to get the Strait of Hormuz open. And it shows why any sign of the deal falling apart could have significant rallies associated with it.

Outside markets are mixed amid the conflicting signals while awaiting the outcome from the first FOMC meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair. The U.S. dollar remains quietly higher on the day.

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