You know it's getting toward the end of the year when major news organizations are predicting a polar vortex to hit us in late November. In fact, some of these mainstream media have been telling us how unusual it may be. I know that the older I get the less I like winter. It is a time when crop farmers can re-calibrate, some in warm climates. However, it is also a time for many to make exhaustive plans for their cropping in 2026. Here we are.

In Ontario this year it was definitely a tale of two different stories. We had devastating drought in central and eastern Ontario and to some extent in other parts as well, but the deep southwest of the province did very well. I had above average wheat and soybean yields but broke records when it came to corn. In fact, I had corn yields this year that I could have only dreamed of maybe 10 years ago. It's certainly not me, although I try hard. Simply put, I had a corn crop that never had a stress from the starting point to the finish line. Hopefully I can do that again next year.

Keep in mind some of my agronomist friends tell me that what farmers do only has about 5% impact on our yields. That is not a knock against farmers, but it's just an admission that timely rains, timely planting, timely heat and benign fall weather can be incredibly significant with regard to crop yields. Add in modern technology and genetics into the equation and it simply helps us get where we want to go. Our agricultural economics tells us on the individual level that we have to produce as much as we can in order to garner profits.

My 2025 corn crop is testament to that. Record yields combined with lower prices versus the last five to eight years can produce profitability.

That is the vicious cycle of agricultural productivity at work. Interestingly enough, we are on the proverbial merry go round of that happening continually. For instance, we all know what corn genetics do. On my farm, corn is the crop where I see the biggest productivity gains on an annual basis.

This is partly because new hybrids have continual productivity gains that are significant, especially in Ontario during the last 10 years. Then there are many new yield enhancement variables in the mix, whether that be some future hybrid wheat variety or some other improvement which can be as mundane as a new seed treatment.

Take the hybrid wheat example, for instance. As per usual, it always seems the goal of agricultural production types (in contrast to agricultural economist types) like to find ways to boost agricultural production.

Hybrid corn has been a good example of that where we have seen significant growth in yield post hybridization up to where we are today. Think of a quadruple of yield overtime. So, think of the same thing in wheat. With a quadrupling of wheat over time and where would that put us? Well, it would put us in a pretty tough place, especially when it came to price. Not only would we have wheat, but more wheat than we have now, which the market is telling us we don't need.

I definitely am not in favor of hybrid wheat until there is a market signal that it might be needed. However, there are a plethora of other advancements on the way.

This past week, I learned a new soybean seed treatment might be available for 2026 which might not be priced above my means. It is so far not registered in Canada, but is expected to be in 2026. From what my agricultural economic mind could consider, it's about the best I've ever heard of and when it comes to this production stuff, I'm a skeptic at best. What it should mean for me is increased yield where the marginal revenue is much higher than the marginal cost. Usually with these things, big corporate interests miss on that last point then ruin the equation. As it is, everything is pointing to bigger crops in 2026, not only here, but also in South America.

That was substantiated by our friends at USDA last week that said after 60 days released their latest WASDE report -- take that for data! The USDA lowered the corn yield by 0.7 bushels per acre, to 186 bpa. This put U.S. domestic production at 16.752 billion bushels above the previous record of 15.34 bb from two years ago. USDA reduced soybean yields by 0.5 bpa to 53 bpa. This put total US production at 4.253 bb, a slight decrease from September. The trading algorithms pounced on the announcement, selling off. Big supply is winning the day again.

As we careen toward December with polar vortex headlines nipping at our ears, it's good to remember that in this business the future never really arrives -- it just keeps getting replanted. Bigger crops, better genetics, new seed treatments, USDA estimates, and the odd rogue rainstorm all get mixed together, and somehow, we make sense of it. With 2026 on deck, it all comes down to the same old calculus: enough weather, enough price, and enough providence to make the numbers work.

**

The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.