I hate to be the bearer of bad news given that the market has had plenty to digest lately. But sitting quietly behind the scenes and getting forgotten about among all the headlines, another unfavorable story is playing out: The ever-increasing weight of fed cattle carcasses.

With the government back online, the weekly actual slaughter under federal inspection data was released and shared some concerning numbers. For the week ended Nov. 1 (as the report runs two weeks behind schedule) dressed steers averaged 983 pounds -- a new all-time high for the industry, surpassing the weights of 2020 during the COVID shutdown by a long mile.

To put this new milestone into perspective, for the same week a year ago steers were averaging 958 pounds (25 pounds less than today). Compared to two years ago, steers were averaging 927 pounds (56 pounds less than today). And compared to 2020 -- when fed cattle supplies were backed up because of the COVID packing plant shutdown -- fed steers were averaging 924 pounds (59 pounds less than today).

So, is this increase in beef tonnage a blessing or a curse? I mean for heaven's sake, even the news anchors on TV know the U.S. sits with an all-time low beef cow-herd and supplies of beef are thin, which is why prices are high at the grocery store. So, shouldn't we be thankful cattle possess greater carcass weights today and are supplying the industry with more beef?

Unfortunately, a rose-colored-glasses situation isn't playing out here. You see the industry has been completely fixated on chasing carcass traits and we are now seeing those genetics come to fruition at a time in which corn prices are cheap, which only incentivizes feedlots to feed the cattle for even longer periods of time. And although the U.S. sits with an all-time low beef cow-herd, what the market is desperately short of is lean trimmings for hamburger purposes, not the prime quality steaks these cattle are yielding.

The problem here isn't a matter of today. It's an issue that's going to cost producers exceptionally later down the road as feedlots won't need as many cattle in the future because they can increase tonnage on a per-head basis, which allows them to procure fewer numbers overall. You see the writing on the wall here? Cheap corn, increase tonnage on a per head basis, reduce turnover by feeding the cattle longer -- all allow corporate feedlots to buy fewer feeder cattle and still have plenty of fats to market to packers.

A speaker at the Range Beef Cow Symposium in Cheyenne, Wyoming, in early November said it best, "To be exact, a 25-pound increase in carcass weight per year is close to the addition of one million head of cattle per year through weight alone."

So, taking this one step further, what effect do you think this increase in carcass weight is going to have on the herd build-back? Logically there are two outcomes here. 1) Producers don't build back as aggressively because there isn't the need for that many cows anymore. 2) Producers don't recognize the cost and sheer risk of these ginormous carcass weights, build back close to numbers previously seen, the industry becomes overrun with supply, and prices drop catastrophically.

Also let's not forget that all the while fed steers are reaching dressed carcass weights of 983 pounds heifers out of the same genetics are being kept back for replacement females. What effect do you think these genetics are going to have on the ranchers who keep those types of females around? To me personally, it sounds like one hell of an expensive cow to keep around that's probably going to eat you out of house and home and let's just pray that she breeds.

There's no doubt, we need cattle that yield, grade and produce high quality meat. But the industry can't continue to push the growth envelope and not expect catastrophic problems to arise.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.