Well, we just experienced a smoky, hot day Thursday in southwestern Ontario. I'm sure many of you in Midwestern farm country are used to bright sunshine today but for lots of us through eastern Canada, as well as parts of the United States, we are suffering through some of the worst air pollution caused by wildfires in several years. Last time this happened, some agronomists said the increased sulfur in the air was good for crops. I only hope they are right this time.

It is a terrible problem, especially for the Ontario families who are having their homes affected by wildfires. Let's hope that rain comes this weekend and snuffs out many of those fires. At the end of the day, we are all Canadian and we need to work together in hoping this comes to an end.

Amid the smoke, the wheat crop is quickly being harvested in very dry conditions across southwestern Ontario. It will continue right up to the Quebec border sometime in August. Of course, I'm not really sure about yields at this point, but at least the wheat market showed a little bit of life this past week. Ontario wheat producers were able to sell wheat for well above $8 per bushel.

Interestingly, here in Ontario we don't really have too good of a government estimator on the depth and health of the crops. Yes, we have Statistics Canada, which gives us our acreage guess, but it is often not as timely as one might like. I do know several people that work for Agriculture Canada that are involved in crop mapping using satellite technology. They do an excellent job, but at the end of the day I often say in Ontario we make guesses how many acres we have and how many bushels are produced. I have often written that in comparison with the exhaustive statistics which come up from the USDA. That's why I was very taken by a recent article written by DTN Ag Policy Editor Jake Zajkowski on how the USDA is going to review and modernize the national agricultural statistics service (NASS) reports, data systems and survey response rates. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

According to the article, USDA survey response rates to reports like crop production, acreage and grain stocks were 80% to 85% in 1992 but declined to 50% to 55% in 2016 and are now averaging about 30%. It just stands to reason, with the response rate dropping like that, the information coming out of the surveys isn't as good as it used to be. We've all harangued USDA reports. Last year, initially the USDA came out and said that corn acres would be 94 million. However, they ended up being 98.8 million acres in January 2026. How does that happen? Well, at least the USDA is taking steps to try to figure that out.

We will see what happens, as surely farmers will have mixed opinions about USDA reports even after the review. It seems that we're always acting in a vacuum. However, things change fast. Just last week we were talking about grain algorithms which had accepted a memorandum of understanding for an Iran/United States ceasefire. This week that is all in tatters as Iran and the U.S. are involved in a hot war. At the same time, we have drones flying into the sea of Azov neutralizing Russian grain shipment in the Black Sea area. Combine this with the lower wheat crops all around the world and we had a rise in the Kansas City wheat of up to $1.30 a bushel in just the last two weeks.

In Ontario, this translated to better cash wheat prices for just-in-time delivery to your local elevator. However, do we really know what's going on? I have said the truth is the first casualty of war when everything started getting hot over in the Strait of Hormuz. It certainly still is that way, but uncertainty with trading algorithms sometimes spurs buying. That's largely what happened last Wednesday when soft red winter wheat in Chicago went up $0.47 a bushel in one day.

Corn and soybeans have increased in value as well since the June 30 USDA report. As of last Thursday, we are approximately $0.70 higher in soybeans and 30 cents higher in corn. Is this the last hurrahs before rains come, the smoke blows away and we have those records setting crops again? At this point it's anybody's guess, although USDA crop progress values may hold some clues this coming week.

Maybe the new and improved USDA reports will offer a little bit more clarity in the months to come. We are at a point in the crop year which is critical to crop development and could incubate prices one way or the other. The challenge for Ontario and Quebec farmers is that we simply cannot wait for perfect information before making marketing decisions. The smoke will eventually clear, the combines will keep rolling, and the market will continue to search for the next story. Somewhere between the weather forecasts, government reports, geopolitical headlines and trading algorithms lies opportunity. Our job is to recognize it before everyone else does.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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