It is that time of year again when we have a strange confluence of national pride. What I mean by that is in Canada we have just celebrated Canada Day which was the 159th anniversary of Confederation. On the other hand, or just a few kilometres away from here, we have our American friends celebrating their 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the founding of the American nation. There is lots to celebrate and certainly we've seen a lot of flag waving on both sides of the border. I even heard from one of my DTN subscribers telling me he flew his Canadian flag on July 1.

It was certainly a different world 250 years ago. I like to tell my American friends that if they hadn't insisted on having that revolution, today we'd all be Canadians. That certainly lends to a lot of consternation from my U.S. friends, but it means if you go back that far, we were all one country. An accident of history drove us apart and here we are 250 years later sharing the North American continent as friendly neighbors.

What we are, among many things, are agricultural superpowers. For instance, I often say that the U.S. agricultural economy is about 13 times bigger than the Canadian agricultural economy. Both agricultural economies are incredibly important when it comes to feeding the world. Infused by some of the most modern technologies that money can buy, we continually produce surpluses despite what Mother Nature might do to us. It just so happens that as we head toward the July Fourth weekend, it looks like we are making big crops again. The USDA chimed in on June 30 with its latest acreage and stocks report. (See DTN stories: https://www.dtnpf.com/… and https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

Sometimes the June 30 USDA report is like an explosion. For instance, I've seen in the past when the USDA comes out with acreage surprises, and we see volatile grain price movement. That did not happen this time around. On June 30, the USDA came out and said farmers planted 95.3 million acres of corn this year, unchanged from its March estimate. This was 3% less than last year but will still result in probably the second biggest corn crop ever.

On the soybean side of the ledger the USDA left its soybean planting estimate at 85.4 million acres, about 5% higher than last year. USDA estimated weed acreage to be 42.7 million acres which was a 6% decline from last year and an all-time record low. That might be seen as a surprise, but really it was wheat just being wheat. American wheat acreage has been headed down for years as the moniker "poverty grass" continues to resonate.

On the grain stock side, corn stocks were up 14% from June of 2025, while soybeans were up 5% and old crop wheat was up 8% from a year ago. From 30,000 feet, it looks like grain is everywhere and who am I to argue. It would seem as we go into the July Fourth weekend, that "big supply" is winning once again. Yes, you might say the crop is not made on July 4, but big momentum is building, and it might be hard to slow down. Thankfully, grain demand remains strong.

So here we are, with another bountiful North American harvest in the distance. It points to another thrust of agricultural products moving not only across our borders but out onto the open seas. Unfortunately, we got some news this past week that North American agriculture didn't necessarily want. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who had put together in 2020 during his first term what he called the best trade agreement ever, called the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA, CUSMA in Canada), has now decided that he does not want it renewed and it will expire in 10 years. At the same time, the 51st state rhetoric is back and the Gordie Howe bridge, which is ready to open, remains closed. That's an unfortunate circumstance for Canada and Mexico which are not only the United States' biggest agricultural markets, they're also its most reliable partners.

It is not the best of circumstances for sure. However, in the U.S., Canadian sensibilities do not resonate as much as they do here. We all know here that free trade with the U.S. is whatever the Americans deem it to be and that is certainly the case based on the lack of renewal of the CUSMA agreement. We move on, looking at annual reviews for the next 10 years. With that, we get ramped up uncertainty.

The road ahead remains long. The path for Ontario and Quebec farmers will be one of navigating abundant supplies, political uncertainty and markets that can change in a hurry. We have no control over what happens in Washington. What we can do is stay disciplined with our marketing and recognize opportunity when volatility inevitably returns. Daily marketing intelligence will remain key. As Canada and the U.S. celebrate another year of their shared history, here's hoping common sense eventually prevails in a great coming together. It's proving difficult, but there has got to be a way.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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