November canola is up $1.30 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is up .65 cents per pound, August European rapeseed is down .25 euros per mt and August Malaysian palm oil is up .63%. Dec oats are down 1 cent per bushel. August crude oil is up $1.81 per barrel, August ULSD is up $.0576 per gallon, and the Sept Canadian dollar is down .00075 at .73315. The U.S. Dollar Index is up .133 at 97.455 and the Brazilian real is down .00095 at 0.17835.

Canola was struggling ahead of the WASDE release, with the dark cloud of tariff uncertainty the most likely culprit. Soybean oil is near the highs of the day, in the meantime, as if the markets are pricing in the potential for the exempt status for USMCA-compliant goods to be lost. At this point, White House officials have confirmed the exempt status remains but could change. Given Trump's unpredictable volatility, funds reducing risk would make perfect sense, especially ahead of the weekend.

Soybean oil may also benefit from a sharp rally in energy markets, led by diesel futures. Concern that Trump may have been hinting at significant sanctions being announced Monday against Russia in response to recent attacks on Ukraine (in recent social media posts) is likely behind the gains. Word out of OPEC+ meetings that any further production increases may be paused following the Aug. 1 bump is surely helping.

Treasury markets are sharply lower on concerns over the potential inflationary impact of escalating tariff wars and fears that Trump is laying the groundwork to fire the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The concern is that Trump would replace Powell with someone willing to cut rates as directed, which has recently been for a 3% cut to interest rates. That would be immediately considered as inflationary by markets.

Equity markets remain under pressure on the developments, while the U.S. dollar continues to trade with small gains.

The rest of the grain and oilseed markets are quietly lower ahead of the WASDE update.

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