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Strategie Trims EU Wheat Forecast
1/15 2:45 PM

(Dow Jones) -- A surplus of wheat in the European Union in the 2021-22 season will be larger than expected as the continent's farmers will face stiff export competition, according to a monthly report by Strategie Grains.

The French agricultural consultancy raised its forecasts for the surplus by 300,000 metric tons to 1.6 million tons.

Strategie's figures now exclude the U.K., which left the EU at the end of last year.

A decline in EU wheat exports, with harvests expected to be plentiful, is behind the surplus, the consultancy said.

Strategie cut its forecast for EU wheat exports to 26.6 million tons from an expected 27.1 million tons in its previous report.

The forecast for EU wheat production was revised up by 100,000 tons to 129.7 million tons. The figure is substantially higher than the 119.3 million tons produced by the 27 nations that now comprise the EU in the 2020-21 season.

"A much larger wheat harvest is expected than in 2020 and this rebound could outstrip the projected rises in human/industrial demand," Strategie said.

"On the world wheat market, competition between the major origins will intensify and European exporters will probably find it difficult to export much more" than in the previous season, the consultancy said. This could drive up EU wheat stocks substantially, it said.

Strategie expects carry-out stocks to stand at 12 million tons, 300,000 tons more than it was forecasting last month.

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