It always seems like it is a long way to payday for those of us who grow corn in Ontario. Often, the snow has only been melted for a couple of weeks and we are into the fields in late April trying to get something to grow. There is always a trade-off between early planting and too early. Cold Canadian air and cold soils are part of life. However, when that corn is planted, we began a seven-month risk infused journey to get to the finish line. It just so happens that I reached that finish line Thursday, tossing my hat up on another crop season.

Tossing my hat into the air always represents victory overall against the inherent production and marketing risks this crop has endured since that cold day in April when I planted it in the ground.

However, as all of you know, sometimes it's not victory but more like a surrender and hoping to do better next year. Interestingly, 2025 turned into a pretty good year for me, with much better soybean, and wheat yields than I expected and corn yields that were simply off the chart in record territory.

That is always a good thing because it's the only way we can compensate ourselves for lower prices, having that extra production to get by. This year has been rather strange because we have had somewhat of a sustained moderate rally in grain prices since Oct. 1, something you usually wouldn't expect, especially when you consider seasonality.

Where we find ourselves on Nov. 13 is a very interesting place for a whole bunch of reasons. However, as you all know, the USDA finally released its first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today, Nov. 14 -- the first since Sept. 12.

I'll be talking about that report next week in this column.

But the highlights, according to DTN's USDA reports summary posted Friday, is that USDA lowered its U.S. corn yield by 0.7 bpa, to 186 bpa, and this came in higher than the pre-report average. The lower yield estimate then lowered 2025-26 corn production by 62 million bushels to 16.752 billion bushels (bb). This compares with the record production of 15.34 bb in the 2023-24 crop, according to DTN staff.

As for soybeans, USA estimated the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa in its September report. Total U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.253 bb, down from 4.301 bb in September, noted DTN.

Check out more extensive USDA reports coverage and analysis by DTN at www.dtnpf.com today and early next week.

There's been a lot of water under the bridge since Sept. 12. The trading algorithms will certainly pounce on all kinds of clues now that the report is finally released.

As it is, soybeans were valued at approximately $15 a bushel before the report here in Ontario. Corn was valued at approximately $5.87 a bushel the day before the report came out.

The report will mean nothing to some people that scoff at USDA biases and numbers.

However, those biases and numbers are dialed in to the trading algorithms that use all kinds of algebraic computations to trade in the market, as well as garner as much information as they can about you, the farmer. It should lead to an eventful market weekend across North American farm country.

Farmer data is sacrosanct, but at the same time it is traded and sold almost as much or more than corn or soybeans. I find this particularly interesting at a time when we've had a vacuum of USDA information for the last two months. During this time, we have had private estimates push the estimated U.S. corn yield down more than 3.2 bpa in some cases. There is also the issue of harvested corn acreage and yield, and the same in the soybean market. There are all kinds of farm data to be harvested and the last eight weeks without the USDA has been a laboratory for that. We will see what the USDA piles onto that. Of course, as a farmer I've been bullish on grain for more than 40 years, and I don't feel like changing now.

If you've read this column during the past 38 years, you will know that I've always felt that farmers should be paid for the data they give up. A few years ago, I was told I was dreaming in Technicolor if I ever thought this would come to fruition. However, today in 2025 we do have the technology to get this done. On top of that of course we have the big tech companies that openly harvest our data without us even knowing about it. In many respects, there just has to be a better way.

Of course, in the meantime we've got other risk variables to juggle and another crop to plant in 2026. Our friends in Brazil are feverishly planting soybeans and our friends in Argentina are planting corn. The one great truth is, as we move ahead, any hiccups in the production process down there should provide some fuel for our farm prices here in North America. However, it's too early yet and we also are very aware of the realization that production generally doesn't go down in South America. It always seemed so wide open.

So, as we move ahead, corn harvest will wrap up during the next few weeks. It will be time for many of us to change gears. However, don't worry too much -- you've got lots of tech companies gathering your data and watching what you're doing. At the same time, some of those trading algorithms have provided us with prices that we haven't seen in more than a year. The challenge ahead will be to take all of that information, all of that noise, all of that risk, and turn it into something that actually pays the bills.

That has never been easy and it won't be in 2026. The markets will gyrate, the Brazilian weather maps will light up social media, and those tech companies will keep siphoning off our data like grain through a 10-inch auger. Still, despite it all, we live in a world where opportunities sometimes drift by like a bin-busting yield -- and it's up to us to reach out and grab them. And yes, after tossing my hat in the air on another crop season, I'm reminded that every hat toss is just a brief celebration before we bend down, pick it up, dust it off and get ready to start the whole journey again.

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The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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