While the corn market has reacted in a positive manner from the renewed concern about dryness in the southern half of Argentina, the sharp fall in the U.S. dollar, rise in crude oil and recent talk about a policy in favor of year-round E15, there are some technical roadblocks ahead.

MARCH 2026 CORN:

Ever since the shockingly high yield, production and stocks that USDA threw at us 11 days ago, and the resulting price plunge, March corn has slowly been gaining some upward traction. Can that continue?

While the factors above play a role in the possibility of strength continuing, the level that was once major support, will now be formidable resistance on the way back up. More specifically, the area bounded by $4.35 to $4.43 should be an area that proves difficult to bust above in the absence of a full-blown drought in Argentina. Brazil is a different story, with the second and larger safrinha crop there just 6% planted, and with soil moisture levels low, especially in the south, there is plenty of time for that crop to run into some problems.

On the export front, U.S. corn export sales and inspections have been incredible and have exceeded all expectations. Credit some of that to the very slow start by Ukraine on new-crop corn exports as Russia continues to pound infrastructure, energy and port facilities. However, Ukraine will have plenty to sell if that situation ever calms down, and Argentine corn, with a possible record crop on the way, is cheaper than U.S. corn, so March forward could be more of a struggle for U.S corn exporters.

Expect plenty of selling to emerge if March corn moves near the $4.35 to $4.43 area, and likewise in new-crop December corn, that resistance level looks to be $4.60 to $4.65. That may be an area in which to market some remaining old-crop corn and possibly some new-crop corn at your discretion.

CHICAGO MARCH WHEAT DAILY:

Chicago March wheat, since falling to within 3 cents of the contract low on Jan. 2, has now climbed its way back up by close to 38 cents. The world's major exporter wheat supplies remains burdensome and creates a headwind for any sharp wheat rallies. Winterkill threats from a week ago got the ball rolling to the upside, and now, with both corn and soy rallying, it seems that fund managers, still thought to be net short over 100,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, have decided that they should lighten up a bit. If they decide to cover more of that short, we could surely reach up to that next resistance level, which appears to be $5.60. That is still some 15 cents above, and with U.S. wheat mostly overpriced to the competition, such a rally seems like a tall task. Only time will tell.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of commodities, futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone.

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Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@DTN.com

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