I just got back from digging up corn seed. Yes, I was busy this past week starting corn planting and hopefully ending it in the same week. A few days of good weather, although very cold, have given me that opportunity. I like planting corn, but it seems like I spend all my time behind the corn planter when getting started. Is it too deep, is it too shallow, is it spaced right, what is the weather forecast ahead? Many factors go into corn planting and seeding depth.

Over the span of several years, I've always said there's a long time between planting corn and that day in late autumn when the corn harvester rolls through. There is myriad risk involved right from today until the first frost this fall and the deafening heat August. Right now, in Ontario the new crop price of corn is approximately $6.20 a bushel, which is about $0.70 above where it was a year ago at this time. The question is what will the price of corn be in the fall? Also, what about June 18 this year? That's the date when the price of new crop corn is often at the height of seasonality.

It might sound boring, but the price of corn despite my musings about predictive markets and algorithms has a lot to do with grain fundamentals. Yes, we know it's not as important as it used to be, but we still have big crops estimated in the United States this year, as well as what's going to happen in Ontario. That's largely up to the weather, which always has such a large impact on crop size.

It just so happens that this year we have a Super El Nino that is taking place. That has to do with the southern oscillation index or SOI. Keep in mind that I am an agricultural economist and a farmer and if you want to learn more about what El Nino, is you can read DTN Ag Meteorologist Emeritus Bryce Anderson's column on DTN this week. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)In this piece, Anderson described three previous Super El Nino years -- 2015, 1997 and 2023 -- all of which had record corn yields. You can also see what DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick is saying about the forecast for a Super El Nino this year. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

So, what will it be this year? In my own case, I'm coming off big record yields last year and I'm hoping for the same this year. Ditto for most people across the Corn Belt. Statistics Canada is talking about 2.3 million acres of corn this year in Ontario, which I find to be a bit of a stretch. However, farmers in eastern Ontario and Quebec will be looking at much better production forecast for this year. How could it be worse than last year where drought east of Toronto decimated crops? We can only hope for better things for eastern Ontario Quebec neighbors.

Corn in many ways is different because of the science factor: How often have you heard bigger and bigger corn yields have a lot to do with modern genetics? We hear it often because its true. Corn breeders have advantages over soybean breeders and have been more successful. However, I don't think it gives seed corn companies license to raise prices continually. Needless to say, they'd respond by saying I'm getting value. I'd respond back with a sneer. However, I continue to grow corn and with record corn acreage projected in Ontario this year, who am I to say.

So, here we are. Big acres predicted in Ontario and bigger acres in the United States. However, not as big as the year before. Super El Nino implies even bigger yields are on the way. December Corn closed at $4.89 Thursday. That's down from $5.05 two days prior. However, much of that has to with the weekend coming and peace once again happening for a Friday in the Strait of Hormuz.

Surely though, numerous market orders must have hit May 5. The corn futures market likes round numbers. For some farmers, this futures levels work, despite the higher cost of production this year. Of course, the secret is 250 bushels per acre. It makes things so much easier. However, if I'm that corn seed which I dropped in the ground today, there is so much risk ahead. Lots of it won't be spoon fed, like that 100 km/hour windstorm originating from a fall hurricane, or that excruciating July tassel heat. The key will be risk management to get to the finish line -- and then a little bit of luck.

Last year, USDA buried us with 17.02 billion bushels of corn. Remember, we all thought price would bury us, but it didn't happen. So, as this corn crop goes into the ground, it carries with it all the usual optimism and uncertainty. The planter may be parked soon enough, but the real work doesn't stop there. And as always, the crop will ultimately be made not just by what we grow, but by what the weather and the market decide to do with it. Good luck out there, it's going to be a battle to get the corn over the finish line.

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The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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