November canola is up $21.30/mt, December soybean oil is up 2.57 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 8.50 euro/mt and September Malaysian palm oil is up .33%. December oats are down 2 1/4 cents/bushel while November European corn is down 2.25 euros/mt. August crude oil is up $5.54/barrel, August ULSD is up $.4563/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00015 at .70680. The September U.S. Dollar Index is up .267 at 101.045 and the August Brazilian real is down .00030 at 0.19250.

I want to lead off by highlighting a new canola sales recommendation made Wednesday morning and found under the canola strategy section. "With the clock ticking towards the new crop harvest, we have some work to do. Even though it appears the bull market correction of June has just ended with the rally off the 100-day moving average -- we want to reward the speed of this week's gains with a 20% sale of 2025-26 canola production while the November contract is trading around C$776/mt. With the current recommendation, we have 40% of 2025-26 production remaining that we hope to split into two increments and reward further rallies with those."

Energy markets are taking center stage again as Iran has joined President Trump in announcing that the ceasefire agreement is now "dead" following renewed attacks with both sides suggesting an escalation should be expected over the coming hours. Crude oil has rallied over $5.50/barrel on the news with diesel prices surging even more. August ULSD is up $.4563/gallon or 13.8% on the day as midday nears. That is providing fuel for the canola and soybean oil price surge.

The weekly EIA inventory report may have been partially responsible for diesel's exceptional run with a 5-million-barrel drawdown in distillate stocks being reported when a slight build was expected. On the other side of the coin, crude oil stocks (excluding the SPR) actually increased by 3 million barrels when the trade was looking for a 1.4-million-barrel drawdown (thanks to increased domestic production and imports). The SPR levels continued to decline with another 6.2 million barrels being released, taking supplies down to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since early 1983. Leaving traders uncomfortable with the developing escalation of the war with Iran.

In the meantime, profit taking appears to have set in for corn and wheat following the impressive gains seen since the new month and quarter began. Soybeans are mixed despite confirmation from the USDA that China had indeed been buying soybeans this week with sales of 472,000 mt reported in the daily flash sales system.

Outside markets are less than impressed with the developments in the Middle East as stocks trade sharply lower while bonds extend recent losses on rising inflation fears. The rising interest rates and tensions have supported further gains in the U.S. dollar with a rally off the test of the breakout from a saucer bottom looking more convincing all the time.

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