November canola is up $10.20/mt, December soybean oil is down .32 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 6.75 euro/mt and September Malaysian palm oil is down .37%. December oats are up 4 3/4 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 8.00 euros/mt. August crude oil is down $.47/barrel, August ULSD is down $.1207/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00090 at .71375. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down .196 at 100.515 and the August Brazilian real is down .00020 at 0.19605.

Wheat is stealing the show today with corn following closely behind on the deteriorating situation in the Black Sea region. Ukraine now claims to have struck 136 Russian vessels since July 6 during an aggressive drone attack campaign. Russia has retaliated, killing three and injuring others in a massive drone and missile strike on the Ukrainian export port of Odessa. In response, reports suggest ship owners are planning on avoiding the area for fear of attack. With Black Sea exports responsible for close to 30% of global wheat shipments and 12% of the world's corn exports, such an escalation is more than just market noise. With that, wheat rallied as much as $.44/bushel in Kansas (which most closely matches Russian export standards) with corn up as much as $.09/bushel on the day. The timing couldn't be worse for Europe given the damage being done to their corn crop by the ongoing drought with their corn market on the highs of the day after setting a new contract high overnight. The fighting has also helped canola maintain gains while soybean oil lost its momentum when energy markets turned lower.

Another (so far unsubstantiated) claim by Trump that Iran had called wanting to make a deal was enough to turn energy markets lower despite further declines in crude oil inventories (including another 3-million-barrel drawdown in the SPR levels) as reported by the EIA in its weekly update. Diesel is under added pressure as distillate inventories unexpectedly rose 4.6 million barrels when a drawdown of 100,000 barrels was expected.

Outside markets are reacting to a much weaker-than-expected June PPI release, like that seen in Tuesday's CPI report. That allowed Treasuries and stocks to jump initially with the U.S. dollar declining on the lower interest rates.

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