The world is chaotic and it can be nauseating to think about all the distinct factors imposing friction on the marketplace. However, the daunting elephant in the room no one can afford to ignore any longer is drought.

This past week I compared the drought maps of 2022 to what the countryside is seeing in 2026, and the findings were quite compelling.

The reason I pulled the 2022 maps was that was the last time drought gravely impacted cow-calf producers and when the mass liquidation of the beef cowherd began. To be clear, the industry is no longer in a liquidation phase. Rather, it is simply sitting in a neutral position after the mass liquidation. Still, there hasn't been any clear-cut evidence to suggest producers have begun to rebuild their herds on any sizeable scale.

Just last week, the latest Cattle on Feed report shared the steer and heifer breakdown of cattle on feed and as of March, heifers still comprised 37% of the total number of cattle on feed. When heifers inhabit 37% of the total number of cattle on feed or more, we know that growth mode -- or the rebuilding of the cowherd -- has not yet begun.

Why is that? At a point in time when feeder cattle prices are record high, fed cash cattle prices are record high, and beef demand is unmatched -- why aren't cattlemen chomping at the bit to buy more cows?

Posing this question in such a flippant, simple manner is almost laughable because the list of reasons why cattlemen are leery to become overly bullish are numerous. To highlight a few: cattlemen are soberly aware of the sheer risk associated with this line of business and know at some point the market will turn; cattlemen struggle to find sufficient capital to operate, let alone to extend their notes any further; and cattlemen are gravely concerned about the drought outlook.

Put in the simplest form, the growth of the U.S. beef cowherd is dictated by two factors: profitability and green grass. Although prices may be at record highs, that does not mean profitability is ensured. Drought continues to linger and if rain does not come in the immediate future or later this spring, cattlemen will be facing yet another problem.

Based on the drought maps that accompany this column, the map on the left shows what drought conditions were like for the week of April 12, 2022. The map on the right shows what current drought conditions are as of April 7, 2026. As you can see, there were more areas impacted by severe/extreme drought conditions in 2022 at this time; but there are more regions this year that are categorized by being abnormally dry or are D1 classifications, which is considered a moderate drought.

So, looking ahead, what should cattlemen expect? And how might this affect the cattle complex moving forward?

I asked DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick to share his thoughts on the topic. "There are some interesting comparisons in the drought monitor maps between now and 2022, even though the weather patterns were pretty different between the two years." Baranick said. "The results on the map from this time in both years do signal big challenges up and down much of the U.S. Plains with regards to soil moisture and ongoing drought. Both years had some pretty dry winters and early springs, especially in the High Plains, but they didn't have the exact same weather patterns to cause this. Areas closer to the Midwest had some better precipitation patterns in both years, particularly in North Dakota in March of 2022 and eastern Kansas in April of 2026. Some areas of the Plains are worse now than they were back in 2022, including most of Nebraska back west to the Rockies; but 2022 was worse in other areas like Montana and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

"The forecast moving forward is different than what we saw in 2022 as well. May in both years looks fairly active, but the DTN forecast for the summer of 2026 appears to be much more active than what happened back in 2022."

I pray John's outlook for a wetter and cooler May, June, July and August through most of the High Plains holds true and cattlemen get the moisture they desperately need. Because for most of the High Plains, prime grass growing season is in April and May. If we don't get the moisture we need early on, delayed rain won't do much good for dead and burnt grass.

Moving forward, this will be a topic at the forefront of cattlemen's minds until sufficient moisture surfaces. So much of the cowherd's trajectory depends on moisture. If prices hold strong and moisture accumulates, then there is a chance some operators will bet on their future and dive into more cows. But if prices weaken and the needed moisture never comes, then we will be in a completely different situation, and even more cows could be sent to town.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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