Winter looks like it may get a quick and early start this year. Though average and overall temperatures have been dropping during the last two months, temperatures have largely been above normal. A couple of colder bursts have moved through at times, but the general pattern has been warm. Another burst of colder air is set to move through the country next week, but this one may be a little different than the last several.

Earlier cold shots have generally been brief, even if they were intense, lasting just a couple of days. But this one could be the start of a much colder wintertime pattern for large portions of the U.S.

The weather pattern hasn't been one that favors anything long lasting, at least not yet. But La Nina's influence on the weather pattern may start to be coming to fruition. Colder waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, as we are currently experiencing, tend to build upper-level ridges of high pressure in Alaska.

One is forecast to do so starting this weekend. That will push an upper-level trough of low pressure that is currently up around Alaska down into western Canada. The trough will then sweep through the middle of the U.S. during the week of Thanksgiving. This trough already has some cold air to work with. Temperatures in Alaska and northwestern Canada are in the single digits above and below zero Fahrenheit on Thursday morning, Nov. 20. Additional cold air is forecast to move down from the North Pole to reinforce that pool of cold air next week. As the trough sweeps across the country, the cold air will fill in behind it, leaving a pool of cold, arctic air for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely beyond.

A strong cold front is forecast to move into the Northern Plains late on Nov. 24 and quickly push through the country by late Nov. 26. Temperatures will take a nosedive, though models are still working out just how cold it could get next week. Indications are that temperatures will continually get lower as the week wears on, peaking in the Nov. 27-29 time frame.

The lowest temperatures are likely to reside in the Northern Plains, closest to the source of the arctic air. Early forecasts from the American GFS model for that region have temperatures falling below zero perhaps on Thanksgiving Day, but more likely for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures may not break above the freezing mark for some areas from Central Plains through the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Locations across the South and Southeast will be less affected by the cold, though the drop in temperature is likely to be significant, a stark change from the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit this week.

But these specifics may change, too. During times of extreme anomalies like we are about to witness, models do a poor job of getting the actual temperatures within about five degrees beyond about Day 4. And typically, models underestimate just how cold it gets.

That is not to say there is a guarantee of extreme cold though, either. Models such as the European ECMWF have a tamer drop in temperature along the initial front, with below-normal temperatures the rest of the week, but only about 5-10 degrees below normal. In contrast, the current run of the GFS is more in the 10- to 20-degree-below-normal range. DTN's forecast is closer to the GFS model.

Usually, a strong cold front is attached to a strong storm system, creating hazards for travel including strong winds, wintry precipitation, and potential for blizzard conditions. While those impacts cannot be ruled out just yet, a very tricky and complicated interaction is forecast to take place.

A low-pressure system will be out in the Southern Plains in advance of this strong cold front. It is forecast to move northeast through the Midwest and Northeast early next week that should produce widespread rainfall. The cold front will indeed be attached to a stronger low-pressure system, but it will follow too closely behind that initial one, being robbed of the moisture that would be necessary to produce a significant winter storm.

That can still change, but models have been rather consistent this week on keeping those two systems separate. The colder air may still spark some areas of snow and strong winds but would be relegated more to northern areas in the Nov. 25-26 period. For those travelling before the holiday, some issues may arise. And with cold air continuing to flow across the Great Lakes, those nearby may be influenced by a very heavy lake-effect snow event during and after the holiday.

This is likely to be the start of a much colder December pattern for those east of the Rockies. The ridge in Alaska is forecast to be a somewhat permanent feature. Though we could see the cold air relaxing at times, and occasional bursts of warmer air interceding, that would be followed by additional bursts of cold air that would keep many areas in colder-than-normal conditions. In general, December is forecast to be largely below normal for all but the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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