A long-duration heat wave has been consistently anchored across the Northern Plains throughout this week. Going back to July 11, temperatures have regularly risen near or above 100 degrees. Coming with limited to no rainfall, soil moisture is dropping dramatically in the region. Adjacent areas of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest have also seen heat this week with no precipitation either. The heat wave will be coming to an end in these areas early next week, but the rainfall forecast is not looking like the relief that is needed.

The heat was maximized on Sunday, July 12, when temperatures reached 115 degrees in Montana. Since then, temperatures have been slowly falling but are still excessive. Heat advisories have been posted in South Dakota all week long and all but Thursday across southwestern Minnesota. Highs well into the 90s with dew points into the 70s have made it very uncomfortable across the region this week and that will not change over the weekend. Some higher temperatures may actually occur again on Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front that will cause dramatic drops in temperature across most of the country east of the Rockies. Areas of the Central Plains, which have been slowly creeping up to the mid-90s this week, may eclipse the century mark while mid- to upper-90s build back into parts of Minnesota and Iowa. The cold front will move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, July 20, then into the Central Plains and rest of the Midwest on Tuesday, July 21.

Temperatures will be dropping about 15-20 degrees -- pretty strong for the summer season. Instead of highs near 100, some areas of South Dakota and Minnesota are forecast to only get near 80 degrees after the front sweeps through.

With all the heat and humidity building up south of that front, chances for rainfall and strong thunderstorms should be likely to occur. However, models don't agree.

With the main system pushing through Canada and not the U.S., there will be limited potential lift in the atmosphere to take advantage of the available fuel. For the Western Corn Belt, showers and thunderstorms are still likely to occur but would be more likely to be isolated than widespread. Therefore, only limited areas will see any significant rainfall out of the front's passage. And that could be a problem for developing crops.

Soil moisture maps showcase rapidly deteriorating levels from Wyoming through the Dakotas and into parts of Montana, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa. Without adequate coverage of rainfall, crops which are essentially in their reproductive stages will continue to suffer, even with much milder temperatures moving in next week.

Models do show some potential for showers moving through behind the front next week, but only in isolated fashion and particularly near the Canadian border. However, the cold front may stall out in the Central Plains down toward the Delta. Should that occur, it would be a zone where showers and thunderstorms may develop throughout the week. Models are unsure about the placement of the front and the development of precipitation, which is typical for a stalling front four to five days out. If this front does stall, those around Nebraska and Kansas -- and possibly Missouri -- would be most likely to benefit.

The rainfall forecast is more generous to those in the Eastern Corn Belt. Already finding some isolated showers behind a lead system that will move through on Friday and Saturday, July 17-18, the front that moves through on Monday and Tuesday will have more widespread showers occurring with it. Some areas here, which also saw temperatures in the 90s but for a shorter period this week, will get the rainfall needed to replenish the lost soil moisture from this week. Not all areas will receive enough, but many more should see increased totals over their western counterparts.

Though milder temperatures will move in next week, the source of the heat will only be pushed back to areas west of the Rockies. While the upper-level pattern of a western ridge and eastern trough do battle, eventually it appears the ridge will start to win out and the heat may return to the Northern and Central Plains as early as next weekend. Other models wait until early the following week, during the last few days of July. So, summer heat will not end after this front moves through. But just because it might be hotter going into August does not mean it will be stressful. We should also be watching for more widespread precipitation accompanying the heat, a period that may feature more thunderstorm complexes that could ease potential stress.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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