An upper-level ridge is sitting out in the western states at midweek, but there are disturbances embedded within it. When those disturbances move eastward and out of the confines of the ridge, it will strengthen significantly, producing another heat wave in parts of the western and northern U.S. and southern Canada. However, models have a lot of uncertainty about how this heat will manifest, how long it will last, and if it will spread into other parts of the country next week.

This week has featured some fairly typical summer weather. We have seen pop-up showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern quadrant of the country, some slightly above normal temperatures in the Plains and Midwest, and a front moving across the country is bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. In almost all cases, the weather is nonthreatening to U.S. agriculture. However, the strengthening ridge this weekend could challenge that idea as corn gets into its most critical time for development and begins pollination.

As the ridge strengthens this weekend, temperatures will soar across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Widespread high temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit, and somewhat widespread potential to reach into the triple digits will exist from Montana to Minnesota between Saturday, July 11, and Tuesday, July 14, with the most likely peak of the heat occurring on Sunday, July 12.

If this were the end of the story, it would be a miserable couple of days, but one that would not touch enough cropland to cause much concern. However, models disagree on whether this heat should be pushed back to the western states or spread eastward through the Midwest and Northeast. There are two main camps in the models.

The American models contain the heat to portions of the High Plains westward for the end of next week and then through the weekend. In contrast, the European model allows for some of this heat to spread through the Corn Belt, getting a lot more of 90-degree temperatures across the Midwest and into the Northeast again, like we saw last week. It even has potential for 100-degree temperatures in areas like Michigan and New York City, while keeping the heat up in the Northern Plains and spreading it south into the Central Plains. The European model is the more concerning of the two camps for pollinating corn, but does it make sense?

A quick glance at the models shows the same sort of setup, but one key subtle difference causes the difference of about 10 to 15 degrees across the Corn Belt. This primary difference between the two models is not necessarily regarding the heat ridge. Instead, it depends on how these models treat an upper-level trough that should be moving into eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. in the middle of next week, around July 14-15. The American models are much stronger and deeper with this trough than the European, forcing the ridge to be more amplified, but limiting its reach to the Plains where temperatures will continue to be hot, with lots of 90s and some potential for 100s from Montana to Texas. Meanwhile, the weaker European model allows this ridge to spread out through more of the U.S., inducing more widespread heat. But which is more likely to be correct?

Meteorologists at DTN are siding more closely with the American depiction. Over the course of the summer, the European model has been running hot, unable to understand how deep some of the troughs that have moved through the country would be, missing the milder air within them, and expanding heat too much in areas that are favored to be hot. For that reason, a stronger trough in the East seems more plausible, and a more limited heat wave is forecast. But with how stubborn the European has been, it is hard to be too confident. Heat risks are there for next week across some key areas of the country.

Even if temperatures trend milder in the Corn Belt next week and the heat is limited to a few days, the precipitation forecast is not very active. Systems moving from the top of the ridge through Canada may push a front southward, which would bring in the milder air later next week. That could be an area to watch for some thunderstorms and severe weather. But the likelihood that precipitation is widespread will be very low. All models agree with that fact, with precipitation generally under half an inch and coming in a couple of streaks at best from the Northern Plains through the Midwest. If not for the very active past several weeks -- and generally good soil moisture in these areas -- even the shorter heat wave would be a large concern. Areas in the Central Plains and southwestern Corn Belt are more likely to be drier and hotter, which would be a poor combination for pollinating corn there over the next six to ten days.

In contrast, showers may continue from Texas to the Carolinas, limiting the potential for heat and keeping soils a bit more moist for crop development in these regions. There is potential for the current forecast to be too warm if the showers are more widespread.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.